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December LSAT Predictions


Eighteen days and counting to the December LSAT.

So I thought it was time for me to put my neck on the line again. I have developed a dangerous habit of making predictions about upcoming LSATs. Kinda like Miss Cleo, LSAT-style (minus the fake Jamaican accent and fraud allegations).

Prior to the September test, I made certain predictions about the curve. My predictions were based on a number of factors that I called a “perfect storm” that would result in a relatively easy curve. And it turns out that I was right.

Well, there was some big news that came out yesterday. There were more LSATs administered in September than ever before. And these increased numbers are likely to continue for the December LSAT. Last year, 43,646 people got to enjoy four hours of logical sparring in December. This year, the number will probably be around 51,000.

Basically, I believe that the same factors that affected the last two exams (bad economy, new rules relating to postponing) are still going to be in play on December 5th.

So here we go. My thoughts on the upcoming December LSAT:

1.      The curve will be rather forgiving.

A while back, I actually crunched the numbers to see if there was an “easy” time to take the LSAT. Turns out that, over the years, there is not. However, if you look at the graph a little more closely, the December test is a little bit more lenient in the 155 – 165 range.

170:      11 questions wrong
165:      18 questions wrong
160:      26 questions wrong
155:      35 questions wrong

2.      Comparative Reading will be difficult.

The comparative reading passage on the September test was easier than a game of Scrabble against Mike Tyson. It was based on the idea that people build expectations while music is playing and suddenly stopping or interrupting the music will throw people off to some extent. Being a white man and thus having experienced the embarrassment of continuing my dance moves after a break in the music, this one was really in my wheelhouse.

But the good old LSAC does not like it when people think things are easy. So my best guess is that they are going to bounce back with a lengthy and difficult comparative reading passage.

3.      Logic Games will feature a complicated Ordering game.

One more thing about the LSAT: they stick with what works. And by works, I mean gives students nightmares for weeks following the exam. For the last couple years, basic Ordering games have been featuring a challenging curveball in the form on tricky rules.

Luckily you can watch the lovely Mr. Elzie teach you how to deal with one of these buggers.

Best of luck with your studies over the next few weeks. If you have any other questions about the upcoming test, feel free to post.