As a residency counselor, I get asked variations of the same question from my mentees, online forums and Q&A from students across the country each year: “What are my chances of matching into [insert specialty here]?”
With Step 1 now pass/fail and Step 2 scores carrying more weight than ever, med students are searching for clearer ways to assess their competitiveness. However, the process is more muddled!
This is why our team at Blueprint Test Prep created the Residency Match Probability Calculator, a free tool for U.S. MD residency applicants to calculate the data-driven likelihood of landing at least one interview in their desired specialty. The calculator measures important variables that influence your overall chances of matching, so it can be useful to see how various criteria influence the overall strength of your application in any specialty.
**Before launching into the calculator, allow me to also include the following disclaimer: the residency Match process is veiled, complex, and influenced by many factors that are not publicly disclosed. While the guidance and projections provided here are based on data from previous Match cycles, national trends, and commonly reported program behaviors, they represent an approximation—not a guarantee. Allow for a margin for error. If we indicate that you have a “good shot” at receiving an interview, it is just that.
With that, take our calculator for a spin!
Factors Incorporated Into Our Residency Match Probability Calculator
Curious about how we put together the Residency Match Probability Calculator? Here are the factors that are part of our probability estimate. Each of the following inputs have an impact on whether an applicant will land an interview in their specialty!
1. Specialty Choice
The first and arguably most influential factor in determining your competitiveness is the specialty you choose. Each specialty carries its own requirements, which means your application will be evaluated very differently depending on which you apply to.
Highly competitive specialties such as dermatology, radiology, orthopedic surgery, neurosurgery, and ophthalmology require exceptional academic metrics, significant research participation, and strong dedication to the specialty.
In contrast, broad-access specialties like primary care, including internal medicine, family medicine, and pediatrics tend to use a more holistic approach and generally offer a wider range of programs that vary from community-based to academic.
Your specialty choice sets the baseline expectations you must meet. These include the Step 2 score range programs will look for, the average number of interviews typically required for a successful match, the quantity/quality of research expected, and how much these programs tolerate red flags such as failed exams or repeated coursework.
For example, a USMLE Step 2 score of 250 might position you as a highly competitive applicant in family medicine but could place you below the median for dermatology. In other words, your competitiveness is relative, and understanding your specialty’s unique landscape is essential to interpret your match probability.
2. USMLE Step 2 or COMLEX Score
We all know that Step 1 is now pass/fail, and so Step 2 CK (or COMLEX Level 2) has become arguably the most influential metric in residency applications.
Programs rely heavily on a Step 2 score because it serves as an objective measure of clinical knowledge for students nationwide and is correlated with board exam pass rates, making it a convenient screening tool. Your Step 2 score determines whether you make it past underlying score filters, so it’s no surprise that most calculators weigh Step 2 heavily.
It’s important to understand, though, that falling below the average Step 2 range for your specialty doesn’t take you out of the running. Applicants with lower scores can and often do match every year, but success typically requires compensating strengths such as excellent clinical evaluations or letters of recommendation, carefully targeted program selection, and a compelling application that explains your motivation and readiness for residency.
With that said, scoring at or below the 10th percentile while competing for a plastic surgery spot among applicants that scored at the 90th percentile or higher will likely NOT yield a favorable result.
The bottom line is: Step 2 plays a major role in whether you land an interview, but it’s not the sole determinant of success.
🔗 Click here for more information about Step 2 CK percentiles!
3. First-Time Applicant vs. Reapplicant
Whether you’re a first-time applicant or reapplying after an unsuccessful cycle makes a difference. In fact, being a reapplicant is one of the strongest negative predictors of applicant outcomes.
Residency programs view reapplicants with closer scrutiny, and national data consistently show that reapplicants experience lower interview yields and face more barriers in securing callbacks. This is true even for those that have decent academic metrics—the reality is that if you didn’t match into a program the first time around, there was likely a valid reason for that decision.
Program directors naturally want to understand why an applicant didn’t match the first time. Was it an overly ambitious program list? Gaps or weaknesses in the application? Poor interview performance? Or perhaps a combination of the above?
Reapplicants must prepare for these questions and demonstrate they’ve addressed the issues from the prior cycle. It’s important to show objective improvement—such as additional research output, stronger specialty-specific letters of recommendation, improved clinical performance, or meaningful experience within the specialty.
In short, reapplying is not a disqualifier, but the bar for demonstrating growth and readiness becomes considerably higher, and programs expect to see a well-documented trajectory of improvement before offering a coveted interview.
🔗 Click here for more tips on staying competitive as a residency reapplicant!
4. Failed USMLE or Core Clerkships
A failed USMLE or COMLEX attempt is one of the most weighted negative factors in any match calculator. It’s an obvious red flag and often programs view exam failures as an indicator of future board struggles, need for remediation, and a risk to their accreditation metrics (a residency program looks bad if its residents fail the board exam). A single failed exam can trigger automatic screening filters, drastically reducing the number of interview invitations an applicant receives before the rest of their file is reviewed.
Similarly, a failed core clerkship can raise concerns about clinical maturity, professional conduct (or lack thereof), work ethic, and team behavior. All of these are things that can potentially impact patient care.
Failed USMLEs or core clerkships require applicants to adapt their strategy. Success after a failure depends on demonstrating strong academic redemption. For instance, an applicant who failed USMLE Step 1 rescues their chances with a high Step 2 score. An applicant failing his family medicine rotation should do as best as they can on the remainder of their core rotations. They should also have a strong narrative that acknowledges the setback while outlining the growth and improvement that followed the lessons learned.
5. Attending a Top 20 Medical School or Holding a Second Degree
Attending a top 20 medical school or holding an additional advanced degree such as an MPH, PhD, MBA, or MS provides a meaningful positive boost to your application.
These credentials signal additional layers of academic success (you must’ve had a strong academic background to be accepted to a top 20 school). Graduates from highly ranked schools also benefit from name recognition and well-established advising systems, which can enhance interview appeal. Advanced degrees demonstrate that the applicant brings additional skills beyond traditional medical training.
These added credentials make you more memorable to programs and function best as supplementary strengths that enrich your application, but be careful. They don’t compensate for major academic concerns such as exam failures.
6. Research Productivity
While the sheer quantity of research output matters—especially for highly competitive specialties—the type and relevance of research can be just as influential. Competitive fields like dermatology, plastic surgery, orthopedics, and radiation oncology often expect applicants to have double-digit research items.
In contrast, primary care specialties such as family medicine and pediatrics tend to value more practical forms of scholarship, including quality improvement projects or community-based initiatives, although having traditional research doesn’t hurt your chances.
Applicants with limited research experience should apply more broadly, particularly to smaller, less academic institutions that usually place less emphasis on publications. Such applicants can also lean more heavily into long-term service projects or meaningful patient-centered experiences that demonstrate commitment to their field.
The bottom line is, research quantity and quality helps open doors, but strong clinical performance and a well-rounded application can still carry you successfully through the Match process.
Additional Criteria to Keep in Mind
There are so many variables that go into deciding whether an applicant will be considered for an interview, that we couldn’t include all of them in the calculator. But they are important nonetheless!
Here are just a few to keep in mind when starting your residency application:
1. The Quantity/Quality of Programs You Apply To
Not included in our Residency Match Probability Calculator is the quantity and quality of programs you apply to for residency. Sending in too few applications dramatically limits interview opportunities, even for qualified applicants.
On the other hand, applying to too many programs can lead to unnecessary financial strain and interview burnout, particularly if you aren’t strategically tailoring your list. I’ve had many applicants cancel interviews because they had over 30 and couldn’t schedule them all. Remember, you still have medical student responsibilities in your MS4 year!
Additionally, the quality and balance of the programs you apply to matters just as much as the number. A weaker applicant who submits only 10 applications is at a disadvantage—but so is the same applicant who applies to 40 programs if all of them are reach programs.
Think back to college applications: the ideal strategy includes a balanced mix. Aim for approximately 25% backup programs, 50% attainable programs, and 25% reach programs. Talk with a residency consultant to figure out the ideal number of programs you should apply to.
2. Signal Number and Strategy
Another important variable is the number of signals you send and how you use them. Recent NRMP data and national advising discussions show that program signaling has become one of the strongest predictors of receiving an interview at a specific site.
Well-chosen signals (aligned with geographic preferences) increase interview likelihood. Poorly chosen signals, however, dilute your chances and waste a critical resource.
3. How Particular Programs Weigh Extracurriculars
Many programs weigh membership in honors societies such as AOA, GHHS, or Sigma Sigma Phi as indicators of excellence, leadership, and professionalism. While not required to match, these distinctions serve as external validation that an applicant performed at the top of their cohort. Unfortunately, not all schools offer these distinctions.
4. Your Personal Statement
The Residency Match Probability Calculator doesn’t quantify the quality of your personal statement. This is an important part of your application, so be sure to give it the time it deserves!
🔗 Click here for more guidance on writing your personal statement!
5. The Overall Strength of Your Application
Finally, there’s an overall element to an ERAS application that’s difficult to quantify. Maybe your score on Step 2 isn’t the greatest, or you had trouble on a certain clerkship, but something about the way your application materials come together forms a narrative that an admissions committee finds compelling. (Your personal statement can definitely help with this too!)
If they decide to grant you an interview on that basis, so be it. A win is a win!
What If You Don’t Meet the “Ideal” Numbers?
Here’s the truth that many applicants need to hear: you can absolutely still get an interview even if you fall short of the ideal metrics! I know and have personally worked with plenty of students who had below-average Step 2 scores, limited research output, lacked a top 20 school affiliation, had no honors society recognition, but still got an interview and eventually matched.
These applicants succeed because they compensate with strong clinical metrics or demonstrate a genuine commitment to their specialty. They apply with thoughtful program selection, signaling, and have recommendation letters / personal statements that share compelling narratives and highlight their strengths.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, we created the Residency Match Probability Calculator as a means to provide you with a number you’ll find useful. However, always remember your final outcome is shaped by more than numbers! Many applicants outperform their calculator score by applying strategically and tailoring an application towards their strengths.
So, use this new tool as a way to estimate your chances at getting an interview in a particular specialty. Remember it’s just that—an estimate! And be sure to reach out if you’re feeling overwhelmed by the application process and are looking for some guidance. We’re here to help!
